Australia has seen an unprecedented surge in migration, with 447,620 permanent and long-term arrivals landing in the 12 months to May—33.6% above the Treasury’s 2024–25 forecast of 335,000 and a third higher than pre-election promises. While net migration dropped to 340,800 in 2024, a February spike of 111,740 net arrivals (driven by university enrollments) intensified pressure on an already strained housing market.

Though total migration remains below the September 2023 peak of 548,800, political battles loom. The Coalition previously blocked Labor’s cap on new international students (270,000 for 2025), and with parliament resuming next week, Labor plans new legislation to limit student numbers—pending Greens’ support.

Housing Crisis Deepens, Per Capita Recession Bites

Australia built just 179,410 new homes in the year to March—barely accommodating the influx. Capital city rental vacancies plummeted to 1.3% in June (SQM Research), with Brisbane (0.9%) and Perth (0.8%) hit hardest.

"Construction activity can’t keep pace with population growth," warned SQM’s Louis Christopher. "Approvals must convert to actual supply for real relief."

The crisis extends beyond housing. May’s net arrivals of 33,230—a record high—exacerbated economic strains. Australia has suffered per capita GDP declines in 9 of 11 quarters since May 2022 (Institute of Public Affairs).

Daniel Wild criticized the trend: "Relying on migration for headline growth is economic laziness. While the overall pie grows, each Australian’s slice shrinks." Uncontrolled migration, he argued, worsens housing shortages and crushes productivity.

The Bottom Line:
While migrants boost Australia’s productivity, urgent government intervention is needed to address housing shortages and per capita economic decline.

​